COP17 Durban Climate Conference November 29

Following revelations yesterday that Canada may withdraw from the treaty, the future of the world's only international legally-binding climate agreement is in serious danger. It's all hands on deck to make sure the EU keep Kyoto alive...

Ships are responsible for 3% of global emissions - more than Germany and twice that of Australia. A levy would represent a double-win for campaigners: potentially reducing emissions by encouraging more efficient use of fuels, while also raising at least $10 billion per year for the Green Climate Fund.

Firstly that we're going to hear a lot of argument about timescales of 5 years or 8 years. This refers to the gap between 2012 (when the current emissions reduction regime expires) and a future deadline for starting a new treaty covering all countries.

(obviously there shouldn't be any gap, but that's how we treat the planet)

The gap could be filled by a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, covering a small number of countries led by the European Union. We don't know how much resolve the EU will summon to bang heads together to make this happen. And we don't know whether it will hang its hat on 2017 or 2020.

Tove Ryding from Greenpeace said:

Those of us living through the European currency shambles may be forgiven for concern that such calls for political leadership are destined for disappointment.

The second point from the CAN session concerns Canada's decision (still unconfirmed) to give notice to quit the Kyoto Protocol forthwith. Now that the NGOs have had a chance to sleep on the emotive turmoil aroused by anything Canada does, they have calmed down a little.

The practical and technical implications of withdrawing from a treaty which Canada has anyway flaunted for years, are not substantive. But it's the breach of good diplomatic manners that will upset not just campaigners but the broader political community. As Mohamed Adow of Christian Aid put it:

The whole point of negotiations is to attempt to reach agreement, however deep the divisions. The arrival of the Canadian minister next week could liven up proceedings.

Check back soon for the latest developments - and in the meantime, those in Durban should beware of some angry trees that are on the march...

We understand it's between Qatar and South Korea.

I'm going with the World Cup football principle. South Africa hosted the last World Cup. Qatar is slated for 2022. South  Korea is nowhere.

So it could be Qatar, not least because South Korea is just about to host a massive high-level forum on Aid Effectiveness - starting today in fact. Yes, I should be covering that too.

Ouch! Qatar is 3rd on the list behind Gibraltar and the Virgin Islands. A small matter of 79.82 tonnes per capita. Surely rules them out.

UN climate boss Christiana Figueres said that;

So it's not like football after all.

Inevitably, he dodged the question about timescales for a potential long term agreement binding Brazil to its pledges for emissions reduction. He said the matter is being "studied" within the G77+China group of which Brazil is part.

The EU is offering to keep the Kyoto Protocol alive with a second period of binding emission reductions provided that all non-Kyoto countries commit to a timescale for the big treaty we all want. Is South Africa ready to agree a date from which its pledges on emissions become legal commitments?

"I do believe it's a good roadmap," said Edna Molewa, South Africa's environment minister. Indeed, she said that three times, once for each of no fewer than three negotiating groups that South Africa associates with - the Africa Group, G77+China Group and the BASIC countries (with Brazil, China and India).

The Europeans know that this proliferation of groups bouncing off each other makes for slippery customers. And that's before you have to deal with the big ones individually.

Minister Molewa said: "we have to deal with the conditionalities linked to the roadmap." She announced that Brazil and Argentina have been tasked with finding solutions (an unusual choice of soulmates?).

So we're none the wiser on 2017 or 2020. But I detect that the minister is from the school of negotiations that brushes aside obstacles, rather than procrastinating. When questioned about the problems facing the Green Climate Fund, Molewa said: "we have sufficient consensus to take us forward," not mentioning the American objections.

That's not how UN climate talks traditionally progress. But then they never do progress so let's go with the host flow for now.

We'll miss him but his departure may reinvigorate the capacity of the group as a whole to make a difference or, as some would say, to make mischief. And the chief mischief-maker, Claudia Salerno of Venezuela, remains at large to glare into submission any recalcitrance from the grail of common but differentiated responsibilities.

Today ALBA fielded an impressive panel of English-speaking negotiators more than capable or reproducing the dignified passion of Mr Solon.

The new Bolivian negotiator, Rene Orellana, simply pointed to the recent UNEP report on gigatonne gaps. He interprets it quite reasonably as a warning that continued inaction on emissions to 2020 is tantamount to losing the fight against climate change.

Tomorrow sees the start of negotiations on the Green Climate Fund. The ALBA speakers were tight-lipped on the suggestion that they will impede progress. But it's pretty clear that they have things to say which others will not want to hear.

The ALBA Group is not finished yet.

and then on the Kyoto Protocol:

That then is the EU starting point for the key item of these negotiations.

It's worrying to read the Financial Times' interpretation of interviews given yesterday by Su Wei, deputy head of the Chinese delegation. According to environment correspondent, Pilita Clark:

I haven't seen this particular exchange reported elsewhere.But we'll know soon enough what China thinks of the EU proposal.

After yesterday's press briefing by the World Meteorological Organization, it sounds as though the ships may have more space to show off their new zeal for efficiency:

Before putting this down to natural climate variation, remember that the most certain statements in the recent UN report on extreme weather events related to the increase in temperature that has already occurred.

Even Al Jazeera point their news cameras at this same patch of Durban grass:

Even the usually buoyant John Vidal in the Guardian feels moved to rewrite lines from Shakespeare's Julius Caesar with the Kyoto Protocol in the lead role. Needless to say, it's the scene in the immediate aftermath of the assassination.

If Canada has been digging itself into a hole, then there's no sign of any pause in the spadework. The opening paragraph of a piece in the Globe and Mail warns:

There's references to the unavoidable necessity for Canada to "align" its economy with its neighbour. Today's session on the Green Climate Fund could get lively.