COP17 Durban Climate Conference Nov 18-19
24th November 2011,
The Jairam Ramesh effect | SEI report on emissions budget | IPCC report on Extreme Events
12:06pm GMT, 18 Nov update from Bill Gunyon
India is portrayed as the stumbling block to progress in Durban in today's edition of South Africa's leading online media, the Mail & Guardian.
Fiona Macleod reads much into the July cabinet reshuffle which brought in Jayanthi Natarajan as environment minister, replacing the charismatic figure of Jairam Ramesh. According to an anonymous source:
India's hard line is causing a stumbling block. India and China are saying they won't move, so the US is also saying it won't move. The three countries are holding things up
There's just a hint of panic amongst the South African host politicians who are desperate for a positive outcome. The M&G article discloses that former environment minister, Valli Moosa, has been brought in to bang heads together.
A Reuters article is more blunt in pointing to the international inexperience of South Africa's current foreign and environment ministers.
1:01pm GMT, 18 Nov update from Bill Gunyon
There's the makings of scandal in the latest shaft of insight published yesterday by the Stockholm Environment Institute. In Development without Carbon: Climate and the Global Economy through the 21st Century, Elizabeth Stanton looks at the economic growth assumptions that drive projections of future emissions on which UN climate agreements will be based.
Her conclusion is disturbing to say the least:
Projections of slow economic growth in the developing world....tend to create the expectation that the poorest countries will use up a relatively small share of the global 21st century emissions budget, leaving more “emissions space” for the high- and middle-income countries. (This) has the effect of weakening the urgent call for rich countries to reduce their emissions.
If I understand it correctly, the report observes that economic models devised by the International Energy Agency are borrowed by other key research bodies including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IEA assumes that growth in sub-Saharan Africa will continue to trail the tigers of India and China far into the 21st century.
Unfortunately the SEI paper buries this issue within its very serious discussion about the relationship between poverty and emissions scenarios. The Institute would perform a valuable service by carving out the core injustice conclusion into a succinct press briefing note.
1:07pm GMT, 18 Nov update from Adam Groves
The IPCC have released a crucial report presenting links between climate change and the extreme weather events that increasingly blight our planet. It finds that climate change is already impacting the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, and that most countries are not adequately prepared to protect their people.Of course, this won't come as news to the millions of people affected by extreme weather this year. 2011 has been the most expensive weather year on record. In the US alone, there have been ten extreme weather events with costs of more than a billion dollars each - a recent survey by Yale University found that most Americans already understand the link between this weirder weather and global warming:
Image by Yale/GMU
1:30pm GMT, 18 Nov update from Bill Gunyon
Just a footnote to Adam's coverage of the IPCC report on extreme weather events.....
.....the IPCC press conference that has just finished took place in Kampala where the scientists' conclusions have been debated. Let's spare a thought for the Ugandan hosts who are having a bad time with the impact of climate change.
the Uganda government has recently appreciated the severity climate change is causing to the livelihoods of the citizens
This was the observation of Ugandan journalist, Mubatsi Asinja Habati, who blogged yesterday with a useful account of the country's preparations for the Durban talks.
8:09pm GMT, 18 Nov update from Bill Gunyon
Pity us poor journalists and bloggers striving to articulate sound climate change stories with the latest IPCC report poised over our shaky savvy on probability. I've resolved to reduce its complex findings on extreme weather and disaster risk as follows:
we're dead certain that temperatures will rise but
long range weather forecasting will be a problem
IPCC won't commit on rainfall projections. Fair enough but I think the report's low-octane interpretation of uncertainty does rather overlook the precautionary principle demanded by the 1992 UN Convention. Journalists such as Richard Black of the BBC appear willing to toe this line but Joe Romm on Think Progress is in no doubt about their doubts:
The thing to remember about IPCC reports is that pretty much everyone involved has to sign off on every word, so it is inevitably a least common denominator document.
The hyper-caution does unfortunately lead the unwary IPCC report writer into some awful holes:
The very likely contribution of mean sea level rise to increased extreme coastal high water levels, coupled with the likely increase in tropical cyclone maximum wind speed, is a specific issue for tropical small island states.
"A specific issue!" Make that a survival issue please.
8:53pm GMT, 18 Nov update from Bill Gunyon
Now, what's this all about. The CNN Ecosphere Project.
The ECOSPHERE is a real-time Twitter Visualiser that aggregates tweets tagged with #COP17 and then orders them into specific topics or discussions
And there's a CNN promise of an "Ecosphere installation in Durban." Meanwhile you can check out the website but your browser needs something called WebGL.
Anyway, the video has ultra-cool graphics and soothing music, ideal for a Friday evening.
9:00pm GMT, 18 Nov update from Bill Gunyon
Do you get that glazed look when you tell your friends that you're interested in the UN climate talks? Here's a tonic for you from a Durban landlady:
She said the event was a lot better for her Umhlanga B&B than the Soccer World Cup
11:31pm GMT, 19 Nov update from Adam Groves
Tom Burke, founding Director of E3G, has an interesting article examining the implications of governments' lack of political will to address the climate crisis. His take on the alternative to legally-binding emissions targets:
The voluntarist approach advocated by some, especially the United States, under the banner of ‘realism’ is a seductive delusion. It is a sly way of giving up on the goal while seeking to avoid blame for the consequences.
E3G's briefing on Durban is available to download.
