COP17 Durban Climate Conference - Nov 16-17
23rd November 2011,
Shipping Industry position | Obama speaks about Durban | Zenawi weakens on Kyoto Protocol | EU passes resolution on Durban
12:23pm GMT, 16 Nov update from Bill Gunyon
12:48pm GMT, 16 Nov update from Bill Gunyon
The Southeast Asian operations of Greenpeace and Oxfam have teamed up to put pressure on the ASEAN countries to be more proactive in global climate negotiations.ASEAN has a reputation of being a little sluggish on its international responsibilities, as the NGO press release puts it:
the ASEAN response to climate change, projected to severely impact Southeast Asia, has been lacking and there is no ASEAN unity in the UN climate talks
The timing is opportune. The annual ASEAN summit starts in Manila tomorrow with Bangkok under water and the Philippines battered by typhoons.
The Greenpeace/Oxfam partnership has an unpoetic acronym, A-FAB, the ASEAN for a Fair, Ambitious and Binding Global Climate Deal.
3:11pm GMT, 16 Nov update from Bill Gunyon
For so long swimming free of any control over its emissions, the shipping industry is at last wriggling on the hook of the UN climate change process. One test of the Durban conference will be whether campaigners can haul in this big fish towards the regulatory net.This week has seen the industry's pawns deployed in smart defence through reports released by the International Maritime Organization and the International Chamber of Shipping.
There's not enough space here to explain all the issues. The ICS paper has clear illustrations and is written in plain english, with a talent for closing out arguments with apparent killer statements:
the same rules need to apply at both ends of the voyage. Otherwise there would be chaos
It's a helpful read provided you remember where the industry body is coming from. The European Union proposal to include shipping in its carbon trading scheme from 2013 is complete anathema, not to speak of the recent UK government recommendation to include shipping emissions in its carbon budget.
And you will search the ICS paper in vain for any reference to a tax on bunker fuel that is a favoured option for financing the Green Climate Fund. My guess is that the tax proposal will be strengthened in a following wind at Durban.
7:58pm GMT, 16 Nov update from Bill Gunyon
The delegation from the Australian Youth Climate Coalition can usually be relied upon to liven up these UN conferences. Now they're celebrating last week's Australian Senate approval of the controversial Clean Energy Bill (a polite name for a carbon tax and cap-and-trade law).
Armed with such rare credentials, the AYCC plans to pull together an international youth climate movement in Durban. Here's the video announcement of their plans:
Health Warning for manic depressive climate campaigners: this film shows young climate activists in high spirits.
9:38pm GMT, 16 Nov update from Bill Gunyon
Yesterday was the closing date for the photo and video competition organised by Connect4Climate. The idea is for young Africans to submit entries which illustrate their experiences of climate change.
There are some great pics which are probably best viewed in the Flickr photostream. The winning entries will be announced during the Durban conference.
I'm maintaining neutrality by not displaying an entry here. You can vote for your choice on the Facebook page.
Judging by the list of sponsors of Connect4Climate - which includes the School of Communication at American University - there's a deeper purpose here to do with the role of social media in connecting climate concerns from very different parts of the world.
12:28pm GMT, 17 Nov update from Bill Gunyon
President Obama has had a half-decent week on climate change, kicking the Keystone XL Pipeline into the sands of Nebraska and introducing regulations to double the fuel efficiency of light vehicles.
Yesterday he even managed to speak about the Durban climate talks, albeit from the safe distance of Australia. I suspect this is the only presidential quote that we're going to get over the next month:
part of our insistence when we are in multilateral forum — and I will continue to insist on this when we go to Durban — is that if we are taking a series of steps, then it’s important that emerging economies like China and India are also part of the bargain....they’ve got to take seriously their responsibilities as well
Hmmm, maybe the US delegation in Durban will need their hard hats reinforced after all..
What worried me more was Obama's general reflection on climate change. Having praised Australia's legislation as "a bold strategy", he said:
as we move forward over the next several years, my hope is, is that the United States, as one of several countries with a big carbon footprint, can find further ways to reduce our carbon emissions
So much for those calls for urgent global leadership.
1:00pm GMT, 17 Nov update from Adam Groves
Ernst and Young have released a new report that attempts to assess the impact of the economic crisis on climate finance. The Financial Times sums up the findings:
Spending to tackle climate change is likely to plunge by at least $22bn in the next few years as government austerity cuts bite... and by as much as $45bn if the eurozone crisis escalates. Meanwhile, an “ever-widening chasm” is growing between what poorer countries need to adapt to climate change and the amount of money wealthy countries are delivering.
The International Institute for the Environment and Development has already shown that, of the funds currently pledged to help poor countries tackle climate change, only 19% have been given to much-needed adaptation initiatives, with the vast bulk aimed at reducing developing country emissions instead. As Oxfam GB’s media team point out on twitter, that may represent an expensive decision:
oxfamgbpress: Estimates suggest that every $1 invested in adaptation to climate change, could save $60 in damages. #Durban #Climatechange @bryanrwalsh
1:38pm GMT, 17 Nov update from Bill Gunyon
Africa's chief negotiator at the forthcoming Durban talks, Meles Zenawi, has put out strong signals of willingness to compromise on the fate of the Kyoto Protocol. According to Voice of America coverage of a press conference in Addis Ababa:Meles acknowledged that the principle of saving Kyoto may be out of reach....Tuesday's strategy conference (of the 10-member Africa group) had concluded that this is not the time for the hard positions which led to failure of previous climate summits.
The Ethiopian prime minister's focus on saving the spirit rather than the substance of the Protocol may come as a surprise to Kyoto hardliners - the newly industrialised countries like China, the most vulnerable countries that met recently in Bangladesh and of course most of the NGO movement. But suspicions that Meles is flaky on the Kyoto Protocol date way back to those final hours in Copenhagen (2009). Allegedly nobbled by the Americans in advance, Meles caved in on the notorious voluntary pledge system which has so undermined the Kyoto principle of legally binding commitments on emissions.
2:23pm GMT, 17 Nov update from Bill Gunyon
Better news for the Kyoto Protocol. The European Parliament yesterday approved a resolution authorising the EU position in the Durban talks.
I don't think the approved text has been published yet but it seems clear that it gives unequivocal support for a second Kyoto commitment period to commence without a break after 2012.
Rather more nuanced was the speech delivered to the parliamentary debate by Connie Hedegaard, European Commissioner for Climate Action and the key official in Durban. "We have also attached a condition," she says:
in the clear roadmap that we want, we also need to have a timeline. When will other major economies commit? And when will they commit in the same legal form as we do? That is going to be one of the main discussions in Durban.
If this roadmap to the future can be agreed, will the roadmap be legally binding? It feels like the dog chasing its tail to me.
The resolution also recommended that the EU should upgrade its current target of 20% emissions reductions by 2020. But this needs approval by ministers and does not furnish Ms Hedegaard's handbag with negotiating cookies.
3:00pm GMT, 17 Nov update from Bill Gunyon
One step forward, two steps back. More knives out for the Kyoto Protocol. This time it's Mark Lynas, former editor of oneworld.net and now fearless pundit on energy and climate change.He wants the Wall to come down in Durban. He's referring to the "Berlin Wall" of climate negotiations, the 1992 division of the emissions world between rich and poor (Annex 1 and Annex 2 in UN language).
The Kyoto Protocol imposes binding promises only on Annex 1 countries. As Mark says in Andrew Revkin's column in the New York Times:
In a world where Europe goes cap-in-hand to China seeking trillions for a bailout, the idea that the distinctions in ‘rich’ and ‘poor’ formulated in 1992 should remain unchanged is clearly absurd. And yet that is the central issue facing the world at Durban.
He leaves unspoken the remainder of his case. Until the poorest countries are prepared to openly side with the richest against the new "major polluters" (China, Brazil etc), the Berlin Wall will stand. Now that China pays the bills in Africa, we have an impasse.
7:29pm GMT, 17 Nov update from Bill Gunyon
Any young African civil servants who fancy themselves as future participants in UN climate talks should read this interview with Petrus Muteyauli, chief negotiator for Namibia.
You will find that when you attend the negotiations, countries with vested interests on climate change come in big numbers with hundreds of delegates to the COP to continuously relieve each other. This is mainly a ploy to frustrate and tire smaller delegations like Namibia, so that when decisions are made at 04h00 in the morning, they will say the decision was made by consensus by those Parties in the room. If you are a small delegation following a number of issues this is a major challenge.
Recent years have seen the big donors trying hard to redress this particular corner of global injustice. It sounds as though there's a long way to go. And capacity-building projects won't do much for another little difficulty experienced by Mr. Muteyauli:
You will have to be modest, polite, humble, and friendly with those parties who might have opposing views. Also I think one has to be very analytical and be able to read the negotiating text between the lines as some words and sentences may be tactically crafted against your position.
